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Next PM?
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Next PM?
Crabb
5%
 5%  [ 1 ]
Fox
5%
 5%  [ 1 ]
Gove
10%
 10%  [ 2 ]
Johnson
10%
 10%  [ 2 ]
May
70%
 70%  [ 14 ]
Morgan
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 20

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Racing Teatray
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:56 am    Post subject: Next PM?  Reply with quote

So I assume few of us actually has a vote (I certainly don't and it's too late to register - the Tory party has specifically set the vote for September to avoid what happened with Corbyn because Tory party membership rules stipulate that you don't get a vote until you have been a member for at least 3 months) but if you did, where would it go? Personally, I think there should be a general election. I dislike on principle the notion of PMs who haven't won their position via a general election.

Crabb? Nice pick as an opposition leader. No way as PM. Just too green. Hard to see him being the right man for the negotiations with Europe.

Fox? Weird decision to run. FT summed it up by calling him "yesterday's man".

Gove? Possibly a nice pick if you want to deny Boris the Eurosceptic vote. Otherwise about as electable as a rattlesnake.

Boris? Urgh. Never. Just no.

May? The least worst choice under the circumstances? Hardly a charmer but easy to imagine her being a tough negotiator with the Europeans.

Morgan? A triumph, surely, of ambition over reality. An also-ran from day 1.

Can add candidates as they declare...
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

May is the only option.
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Michael
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who supports who in the Tories:

https://docs.google.com/spreadshe...sMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?sle=true

Not membership, obviously. Also assumes Boris will run.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another May vote.

Boris will win in the populist stakes. He can point to London buses, the cycle network and the success of London during his tenure as Mayor. London was successful because of it being a gateway to the EU at the time so he should be tested there. His response will be that London has always been popular with Jonny Foreigner.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andrea Leadsom
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have always liked the clear explanations and logic that Fox provides but I have lost all respect for him and his allegiance to the Leave camp.

Of that lot, May is the only one I think has enough gravitas but I don't believe that she would be seen as someone who could pull the country together. In other words, she might do quite well in the EU negotiations but I think she could lose the Tories the next election unless Labour does itself any more damage in the meantime.

Crabb and Morgan are probably better for the Tories from the view of the electorate and the next General election but far to green to go up against the EU.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well May takes a clear lead. Based on our Brexit (sorry) prediction she has no hope

I was pleased to see this morning as I parked my motorbike that I was in The office before IDS as he walked past me still in Smith Square (unless he's joined UKIP).

Anyway the referendum hasn't resolved the issue of pro- and anti- EU in the Conservative party. Unless they sit down and say "look most of our support is in the shires so we have to accept we're an out party now" rumblings will continue.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crabb - Who?

Fox - Looks like he should be David Cameron's Dad,  Diet Dave

Gove-  My missus is a teacher, I take great sport in supporting Gove and hearing the backlash. You have to respect someone who takes on the a bunch of socialist teachers

Boris - Probably not a bad choice in that he'll confuse the hell out of the other EU leaders during the negotiations to follow. Should bring the country closer together as he has that way of appealing the labour vote as much as tories.

May - My Choice, I think it would pay to have a female PM over the next few years and a decent tactician by all accounts  

Morgan - Nothing against her but nothing really going for her either.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

May or Gove.  I suspect it'll be Gove.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt Gove will win. He's (and his wife are) not trusted and I imagine there will be a lot of mudslinging between him and Boris which will cancel them both out. Boris is toxic in Europe and he knows that, when party members start to voice these concerns his chances look even more slim.

My hunch is Boris will back May who was relatively neutral in the referendum with a view to a good position in the cabinet or with a successor strategy.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just watching Boris' speech. He will piss it.

But he's not joining in.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boris isn't running - Shock!
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May for all the reasons RT says.

Gove is not going to be a popular PM if there was an election, too much bad blood already.

Morgan - really? she looks vacant behind the eyes and has done nothing. Frankly I think standing shows she's even thicker than I thought.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crabb and an early general election would be my hope. He would be popular with the electorate and secure a comfortable Conservative majority. Having said that, I expect May will get the job.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Michael wrote:
Boris isn't running - Shock!


Indeed. But once that email got "accidentally sent to a member of the public" and then Gove declared, I think that Boris did not want a straight fight with Gove. He has now become the king / queen maker hasn't he? Who he supports will have a huge advantage in my view.

Crabb is on the ballot to establish his credentials for next time whateverhappens this time. He is only 43. That or he must be hoping that the party want to skip a generation now rather then in 10 years time.

I reckon that Boris will back May, and she'll get it. He spoke about unifying the country and Gove won't be able to achieve that. Boris will be her human attracting non Tories face - maybe even Deputy PM.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I watched some of Crabb's speech last night and was cringing, he's clearly been trained by whoever was responsible for Tony Blair.

Nicky Morgan looks like George Osborne in a wig and has never struck me as being particularly capable of an independent thought, instead trotting out tired old MP speak.

I really dislike Gove, despite not knowing him.

I think Liam Fox should be in the Tower of London for treason and surely his trashing of the armed forces in the 2010 defence spending review (not least the decision to scrap the Harriers but continue with the building of the aircraft carriers off which they would've flown).

Not sure about Theresa May. I took a dislike to her in 2010 for a speech in which she repeated the phrase 'let me make it clear' about 50 times while making nothing clear at all.

What we really need is some new blood in the whole Houses of Parliament instead of the production line versions we get on all sides of the house.

Thank God Boris isn't running though.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Michael wrote:
May is the only option.


Sadly I think you're probably right. Although after the bum fucking she has given the police it pains me to say that. Still, other professions will think the same of Gove, Fox and Morgan. Sad really that there will be so much hate from the respective areas where each had responsibility.

At least Boris has taken himself outof of the equation.

As Jonny says, the wicked witch of Westminster is the least worst of that lot.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow. I bugger off to an Africa conference for a couple of hours and we lose Boris! Hurrah!
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How do I edit the poll?
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think you can. I wouldn't bother anyway, you can't yet rule out a comeback.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I was also going to add Leadsom since someone mentioned her but the very fact she had managed to pass under my radar suggests perhaps she's not going to be a leading candidate.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tory Brexiteer MPs are likely to vote for Gove over Leadsom, I would think.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gove: http://www.theguardian.com/politi...l-not-equipped-to-be-pm-candidate
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stuntman wrote:
Tory Brexiteer MPs are likely to vote for Gove over Leadsom, I would think.


I think Gove is an insidious wee man with an unfortunate "I don't give a f*** about you" face.

He might be for the Tory party but he won't be for the electorate.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't see Gove getting it - he's got one of those faces you'd never tire of punching. It detracts from his message.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tim wrote:
I watched some of Crabb's speech last night and was cringing, he's clearly been trained by whoever was responsible for Tony Blair.


I wasn't very taken with him either. The back story was being squeezed until the pips squeaked and he seemed more than a little pleased with himself. I also simply couldn't see him going straight to PM. Would be like running a marathon after only just learning to walk.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ladbrokes currently has May as 4/6 Favourite, with Gove 3/1, Leadsom 9/2, Crabb 20/1 and Fox 25/1.

On Friday morning last week, Boris was 4/6 Favourite and May was either 3/1 or 7/2 (can't quite remember) and Gove was 7/1.

Interesting as ever, from a betting perspective.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a shame Daniel Hannan is not eligible.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Racing Teatray wrote:
Gove: http://www.theguardian.com/politi...l-not-equipped-to-be-pm-candidate


His actual statement
http://www.independent.co.uk/news...son-read-it-in-full-a7110596.html

Anyone want to bet that Boris might throw his hat into the ring if there is a second ballot as John Major did?
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DetmoldDick wrote:
It's a shame Daniel Hannan is not eligible.




and



again for good measure.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't really see anyone other than Theresa May having a chance now.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DetmoldDick wrote:
I can't really see anyone other than Theresa May having a chance now.


I can see her and Merkel having nice girlie chats to sort the whole mess mess out.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think this, from 2012, sums up Gove.


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Racing Teatray
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone but Gove. Papers like The Economist say that his theory is strong, apparently the reforms he was so disliked for in Education and Health were theoretically a good idea. But he is absolutely hated by most of my friends here - and especially by my wife's friends - who tend to be middle class New Labour and Liberal supporters, often from the Public sector. And I mean hated in a real devil-hating sort of way, not the sort of dull semi-hatred those people reserve for all Tory leaders. Given I live in Winchester, that suggests Gove is not going to be electable nationally.

Also it fucks me off no end that Gove is a Scot who was unelectable in Scotand, and moved to the Tories South East England heartland to be elected there, and was accepted, and now has orchestrated a campaign to get us out of Europe which is basically a campaign to not accept people from other places. How hypocritical is that?
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alf McQueef wrote:
Also it fucks me off no end that Gove is a Scot who was unelectable in Scotand, and moved to the Tories South East England heartland to be elected there, and was accepted, and now has orchestrated a campaign to get us out of Europe which is basically a campaign to not accept people from other places. How hypocritical is that?


I had no idea he was a Scot. However don't get drawn into that Scotland /England thing - we are all British and have every right to reside anywhere in the UK.

The less said about division at the moment the better otherwise the twisted nationalism within the UK could rip everything apart to everyone's cost.

EDIT: I agree about Gove though, he would not be a unifying leader.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not Very hypocritical at all. On the flip side if you want to be a labour MP your not going to try and win a seat in Surrey are you. Talent always gets moved to a safe seat and I wouldn't go as far to suggest anyone from north ofborder should be classed as immigrants, well not for the next few months anyway.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My MTF (Most Tory Friend) commented today when I asked who he thought the Party faithful would vote for:

"Gove’s heart isn’t in it and, although he’s popular, he will be seen as lightweight by comparison.  She will deliver a barnstorming conference speech plus the men of the Conservative Party do like a strong woman…"
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your MTF is correct.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May is now 4/11, Leadsom 4/1 and Gove 10/1.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alf McQueef wrote:
...apparently the reforms he was so disliked for in Education and Health were theoretically a good idea...


Gove has never had a Health Portfolio, I think he is generally disliked on account of coming across as a perfect example of wasted organs and having all the comprehension of a second hand brick - he is not somebody who will unite the party and certainly not the country. Having been a journalist, he has an over-reliance on the story rather than the reality which is a rather unpleasant characterist he shares with Boris Johnson, somebody else whose dad should have had a Tommy-tank the night he was conceived.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frank Bullitt wrote:
Alf McQueef wrote:
...apparently the reforms he was so disliked for in Education and Health were theoretically a good idea...


Gove has never had a Health Portfolio, I think he is generally disliked on account of coming across as a perfect example of wasted organs and having all the comprehension of a second hand brick - he is not somebody who will unite the party and certainly not the country. Having been a journalist, he has an over-reliance on the story rather than the reality which is a rather unpleasant characterist he shares with Boris Johnson, somebody else whose dad should have had a Tommy-tank the night he was conceived.


Don't hold back, will you.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I couldn't believe the reporting of Johnson's non-attempt.
The BBC correspondent reckoned some people in the room were in tears when BJ said he wasn't going to stand.

Pathetic.
It's clearly given the media a bit of a kick not to have him as a candidate though.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gove is unelectable, if he would be PM then no way would I vote conservative.

Clever guy from what I hear but his ability to reconcile the real world with theory and his people management skills (in terms of the common man, not party faithful) are none existent.

Plus he's best mates with Rupert Murdoch and therefore does his bidding (and Murdoch does favours for him) makes him absolutely not to be considered.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gonnabuildabuggy wrote:

Plus he's best mates with Rupert Murdoch and therefore does his bidding (and Murdoch does favours for him) makes him absolutely not to be considered.


Which is presumably why Sky News had the 'headline' of his wife's leaked email about Boris - a non-story if ever there was one.
She's a Murdoch newspaper journalist isn't she?
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tim wrote:
gonnabuildabuggy wrote:

Plus he's best mates with Rupert Murdoch and therefore does his bidding (and Murdoch does favours for him) makes him absolutely not to be considered.


Which is presumably why Sky News had the 'headline' of his wife's leaked email about Boris - a non-story if ever there was one.
She's a Murdoch newspaper journalist isn't she?


Daily Mail I think, Gove is ex Times.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frank Bullitt wrote:


Gove has never had a Health Portfolio


True - but he has an openly expressed dislike for the NHS and preference for a private health system to replace it.

You like him then  
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Frank Bullitt
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forgive the source, but the bloke is a weapons-grade wasted-wank;

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-n...s-open-letter-slams-sarah-6150387
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Roadsterstu
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frank Bullitt wrote:
Forgive the source, but the bloke is a weapons-grade wasted-wank;

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-n...s-open-letter-slams-sarah-6150387
[list=]

I think that's mostly down  to his wife but both are as nauseating as each other.[/list]
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Stuntman
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

May is now 4/9, Leadsom 5/2 and Gove 16/1.

Gove has done his duty to the Party in stopping Boris.  He should now stand aside and let the Party members decide between May and Leadsom (and hopefully make the correct decision).

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