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DetmoldDick

This is the end....my friend

Germany set to ban the internal combustion engine:

http://gizmodo.com/german-lawmake...acebook&utm_medium=socialflow
gooner

That's pretty big news coming from one of the largest new car markets. I can't help thinking that we'll be pretty close to achieving this by 2025. Thinking back to 10 years ago, the Prius was probably seen as the pinnacle of semi electric motoring and today we have the Tesla Model S. That's a massive leap forward and another decade will only see development speed up and costs come down.
Bob Sacamano

Won't happen. The big German carmakers keep getting this sort of legislation delayed, and they will again.
JohnC

I don't see it happening at anything like that speed and reckon we have at least 30 more years of the internal combustion engine. There are lots of social issues to consider. If taxation ramps up the price of petrol and diesel by massive amounts, the poorer in society will find themselves with a restriction on travel whilst the rich will just buy a new Tesla or whatever. The vast majority in the middle will also not be able to afford to buy a new electric car without some significant reduction in costs.

You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from and realise that a nuclear power station can take 10 to 15 years to plan, build and test and I haven't heard many great cries to start building them everywhere. Wind, wave, tidal and solar would also require a lot of long term investment to build an infrastructure which could cope with charging all these cars.

I agree that it is the beginning of the end but the end is not just round the corner.
Bob Sacamano

Germany has decided to scrap nuclear power and go ahead with renewables (and some dirty coal in the meantime). The difficulty will be smoothing out supply and demand - perhaps by using the electric vehicle fleet on charge as battery storage.

Now Hinkley has got the go-ahead here the other 5 or so new nuclear plants planned should start to be green lighted as well.
him

This was interesting, mainly concerned with how to deal with the increased demand from charging vehicles and how infrastructure will have to adapt if the number of electric vehicles increases significantly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le1BKN1vAOs
PhilD

gooner wrote:
That's pretty big news coming from one of the largest new car markets. I can't help thinking that we'll be pretty close to achieving this by 2075.


Fixed you post!
Bob Sacamano

PhilD wrote:
gooner wrote:
That's pretty big news coming from one of the largest new car markets. I can't help thinking that we'll be pretty close to achieving this by 2075.


Fixed you post!


I'll be packing in driving that day then.
Grampa

JohnC wrote:
You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from


This is surely the biggest issue - the requirement in change of infrastructure on the scale that must be needed for us all to be using electric cars must be quite mind boggling.
Big Blue

Grampa wrote:
JohnC wrote:
You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from


This is surely the biggest issue - the requirement in change of infrastructure on the scale that must be needed for us all to be using electric cars must be quite mind boggling.


Exactly. The petroleum industry paid for a huge network of filling stations, depots, fleets of vehicles, chartered and owned tankers to deliver the fuel they paid to have refined at the refineries they built to our cars. The electricity industry is struggling to finance a power station that will take a decade to build and thinks it can build three or four more with money I'm sure it hasn't got and never will have in our lifetimes. They will never justify investing in a multi-site network when the only reason they have a network is because they inherited a state built one. Until PV cells can produce a decent amperage per square centimetre electric cars are a side show.
gonnabuildabuggy

Grampa wrote:
JohnC wrote:
You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from


This is surely the biggest issue - the requirement in change of infrastructure on the scale that must be needed for us all to be using electric cars must be quite mind boggling.


Also, what will be the effect on new car sales in the lead up to it? I suspect it would be a killer for manufacturers.

Not going to happen in that timescale
gooner

PhilD wrote:
gooner wrote:
That's pretty big news coming from one of the largest new car markets. I can't help thinking that we'll be pretty close to achieving this by 2075.


Fixed you post!


I don't think it needed to be fixed. I'm not saying that all cars on uk roads will be electric in 2025. Far from it. But I do think the majority of new cars sold in the Uk will feature some form of electric propulsion, whether it be full electric, plug in hybrid or fuel cell. Prices for full electric cars will fall sharply over the coming 5-10 years and battery capacity is on the verge of massive increase. Fast charging stations are coming online meaning longer distance drivers like myself will be about to get 300miles of additional range in less than half an hour, maybe even is little as 15 mins. I could be wrong on this prediction but only by 5-10 years, not 50 years!
Frank Bullitt

The industry needs to work out its infrastructure priorities and what customers will be liking for - is the focus on a huge range but a slow charge (500 miles but a full charge takes 14 hours, for example) or on infrastructure comparable to fuel stations (120 mile range but a 10-15 minute recharge time) - the technical solutions in-vehicle will vary hugely as will the infrastructure required - in the case of the former overnight charging will be the challenge especially for those without direct access to reliable sources of power (urban environments not built around car parking), in the case of the latter the ability to park lots of vehicles for 15 minutes at a time (see how busy a fuel forecourt gets when a couple of people decide to do their weekly shop in the on-site Tesco Metro).

Of course as consumers we want both, but I don't know how achievable this is especially as the fuel station would be an infrequent requirement as most of us would never use them apart from the annual holiday - who would invest in the infrastructure for this and where would they be (the local forecourt with 4 pumps and parking for 2 more wont cut it).

Perhaps focused investment in out of town shopping centres and service stations?
Bob Sacamano

If the manufacturers all agreed on a standard battery format you could just drive onto a forecourt above a pit and a robot arm could remove the depleted battery from underneath (e.g from the area below the rear seats) and plug in a new one, enabling you to drive off in a few minutes.

Knowing my luck though I'd be the only one to buy the vehicle with the "Betamax" format battery and everyone would adopt the "VHS" one.
Grampa

The other issue of course is taxation of whatever propels our vehicles in the future - there would be a massive hole left by the loss of revenue on petrol - you'd have to wonder if, by the time this hole is plugged, would electricity actually be more expensive give the investment in infrastructure that would also be required.
Bob Sacamano

Grampa wrote:
The other issue of course is taxation of whatever propels our vehicles in the future - there would be a massive hole left by the loss of revenue on petrol - you'd have to wonder if, by the time this hole is plugged, would electricity actually be more expensive give the investment in infrastructure that would also be required.


All vehicles will have sat nav so we'll be tracked and charged per mile quite easily.
simonp

Being the suspicious type I've never 100% believed it, but apparently a car's GPS only works one way ie it only receives signals and emits none...
Grampa

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Grampa wrote:
The other issue of course is taxation of whatever propels our vehicles in the future - there would be a massive hole left by the loss of revenue on petrol - you'd have to wonder if, by the time this hole is plugged, would electricity actually be more expensive give the investment in infrastructure that would also be required.


All vehicles will have sat nav so we'll be tracked and charged per mile quite easily.


I don't doubt the technology will exist for however they want to do it, just wondered how much it's going to cost - my suspicion is that whatever new propulsion tech takes over, once it's past the point of no return, we will be taxed on it till our eyes water - as can be seen at at the moment, we place a high value on personal transportation so are prepared to pay handsomely for it.
JohnC

Many new cars are fitted with a sim card which can communicate with the manufacturer, so if you're doing 120 where you shouldn't someone probably has the ability to find that out by a quick upload from the built in sim, which holds data downloaded by the car.

At the moment this technology is "apparently" not sending live data but if all cars get this tech, road pricing would be relatively easy. Alternatively a screen fitted box and sensors installed on all roads would do the job as well.
Martin

As John says, many cars have 2 way comms built in already. I can see exactly where my car is on my iPhone, lock/unlock it etc, send addresses to the Sat nav etc.  I have an different app that can see a whole load of data from g force and speed to steering/throttle angle etc.
gooner

Insurance companies have already shown how easy it is to get drivers to accept having a black box fitted. They'll offer a financial incentive to the few (as they have with the 0 road tax and 5k grant on electric cars) until the many also partake, at which point the carrot is removed and it's all stick from here.
Roadsterstu

Big Blue wrote:
Grampa wrote:
JohnC wrote:
You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from


This is surely the biggest issue - the requirement in change of infrastructure on the scale that must be needed for us all to be using electric cars must be quite mind boggling.


Exactly. The petroleum industry paid for a huge network of filling stations, depots, fleets of vehicles, chartered and owned tankers to deliver the fuel they paid to have refined at the refineries they built to our cars. The electricity industry is struggling to finance a power station that will take a decade to build and thinks it can build three or four more with money I'm sure it hasn't got and never will have in our lifetimes. They will never justify investing in a multi-site network when the only reason they have a network is because they inherited a state built one. Until PV cells can produce a decent amperage per square centimetre electric cars are a side show.


Nealy sums it up. Trouble is, will legislators care that much or just press on anyway?
PG

I love this comment below the article -
2016: German government bans combustion engines, effective 2030.
2034: German government decides country should revert to an agrarian ecnomy, given the general collapse of industry.
2068: German government bans the wheel, effective 2072.
2207: German government reports Eloi now disappearing at an alarming rate, suggest Morlocks may be behind it.


Let's just assume that this is actually going to happen. The only way enough electricity could be generated to either make hydrogen or charge batteries, is to burn all the fossil fuel that won't be getting used in cars. Or build hundreds of nuclear power plants.

And as ever, cars are seen as an easy and cheap shot. Going to ban diesel engined ships; lorries; buses; aeroplanes and make everyone heat their homes with only electric or wood or heat pumps? No, thought not.

It's just a cheap political stunt. Which means of course that it will happen.  
They haven't really thought this through.  
PhilD

Roadsterstu wrote:
Big Blue wrote:
Grampa wrote:
JohnC wrote:
You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from


This is surely the biggest issue - the requirement in change of infrastructure on the scale that must be needed for us all to be using electric cars must be quite mind boggling.


Exactly. The petroleum industry paid for a huge network of filling stations, depots, fleets of vehicles, chartered and owned tankers to deliver the fuel they paid to have refined at the refineries they built to our cars. The electricity industry is struggling to finance a power station that will take a decade to build and thinks it can build three or four more with money I'm sure it hasn't got and never will have in our lifetimes. They will never justify investing in a multi-site network when the only reason they have a network is because they inherited a state built one. Until PV cells can produce a decent amperage per square centimetre electric cars are a side show.


Nealy sums it up. Trouble is, will legislators care that much or just press on anyway?


Not always a bad thing.
Roadsterstu

PhilD wrote:
Roadsterstu wrote:
Big Blue wrote:
Grampa wrote:
JohnC wrote:
You then have to look at where all the electricity is coming from


This is surely the biggest issue - the requirement in change of infrastructure on the scale that must be needed for us all to be using electric cars must be quite mind boggling.


Exactly. The petroleum industry paid for a huge network of filling stations, depots, fleets of vehicles, chartered and owned tankers to deliver the fuel they paid to have refined at the refineries they built to our cars. The electricity industry is struggling to finance a power station that will take a decade to build and thinks it can build three or four more with money I'm sure it hasn't got and never will have in our lifetimes. They will never justify investing in a multi-site network when the only reason they have a network is because they inherited a state built one. Until PV cells can produce a decent amperage per square centimetre electric cars are a side show.


Nealy sums it up. Trouble is, will legislators care that much or just press on anyway?


Not always a bad thing.


Not always that good, either.

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