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JohnC

The crash of the pound

I was having a conversation with a client this morning about him changing car and the thought struck me that with the fall in the , the European manufacturers are going to have to put their prices up soon or be prepared to accept losses on cars sold in the UK.

With the new road tax charges coming in from April 2017 for cars costing more than 40K, we might have a window of opportunity to take advantage of current prices and pre April 2017 registration to save what could turn out to be a small fortune.
Bob Sacamano

Good opportunity for Jaguar Land Rover to make hay while the sun shines and export as much as possible.
JohnC

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Good opportunity for Jaguar Land Rover to make hay while the sun shines and export as much as possible.


Agreed. I have a client selling online who has seen a 500% increase in sales from EU countries because he advertises and sells in 's.
Giant

Vauxhall, PSA, Ford and a couple of others have all announced price increases of up to 2.5% this past week I believe.
Bob Sacamano

JohnC wrote:
Bob Sacamano wrote:
Good opportunity for Jaguar Land Rover to make hay while the sun shines and export as much as possible.


Agreed. I have a client selling online who has seen a 500% increase in sales from EU countries because he advertises and sells in 's.


The pound has been overvalued against the dollar for a long while now so the current correction will help. However I think it's the Euro that is currently very overvalued against the dollar and pound - it's a currency built on sand and is being propped up by the Germans but that won't go on much longer as the structural cracks in European finances are too great to ignore. A weaker Euro is needed to help boost their exports and get unemployment down, which is currently horrendous for the under 25s.
Humphrey The Pug

Giant wrote:
Vauxhall, PSA, Ford and a couple of others have all announced price increases of up to 2.5% this past week I believe.


Renault have just put up their prices, by 1.5-2%, delivery has gone up from 595-645 and a few options have gone up too.

All Dacia diesels have gone up by 300, the petrols have remained the same.
Michael

Those that put their prices up now are opportunists. Any large business trading internationally will have hedge funds to protect from currency fluctuations. I don't remember them rushing to reduce their prices when the pound rose. Longer term rises are inevitable but the pound is overvalued.
Frank Bullitt

Michael wrote:
Longer term rises are inevitable but the pound is overvalued.


I think it is overvalued against the dollar, but not the Euro as Bob notes.

As for the effect on the car market, seeing as how the UK market is based on a combination of discount-selling and PCP deposit 'bungs' the overall effect will be negligible if at all - the discounts may shrink a little, the deposit contributions reduce but I can't see it affecting list prices at all. The 40k tax barrier would, in theory, drive the reduction of list prices and aforementioned bungs anyway.
Giant

Vauxhall, PSA, Ford and a couple of others have all announced price increases of up to 2.5% this past week I believe.
Racing Teatray

What's the rule on list price rises between order and delivery?
JohnC

Racing Teatray wrote:
What's the rule on list price rises between order and delivery?


It's registration date that matters for the new higher road tax.

EDIT. Sorry read that wrong. I believe that once ordered you fix the car's price at that point.
Nice Guy Eddie

As I understand it you're liable for the increased cost. Will be interesting to see what happens with my M2 option next year.

I doubt I'll take it if it arrives at the dealer post March 17 with the new rules and increased OTR price.
Humphrey The Pug

Racing Teatray wrote:
What's the rule on list price rises between order and delivery?


With us it is done on order date, not delivery so order before the price rise and that figure is fixed.
JohnC

Frank Bullitt wrote:
I think it is overvalued against the dollar, but not the Euro as Bob notes.



BUT the USA is now massively more expensive than it has ever been, if visiting from the UK, so that would suggest that the Dollar is the overvalued currency against the . Alternatively the USA is massively stronger economically now than it has been in the past, when compared to the UK.

Personally I think the is undervalued against both the Euro and the Dollar and we are just seeing the uncertainty over Brexit being demonstrated by a lack of confidence in the . However it could be a few years before things settle down.
Michael

Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...
Bob Sacamano

Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


The saving grace of being a fucked Sovereign State is that the power to un-fuck it is in your own hands.

Now if you're Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France...
JohnC

I have a friend who bought a property in USA in 2007 which then fell significantly in value. He is now contemplating selling because the low will mean that he might now make a small profit in 's terms. The value in Dollar terms has fallen a long way though because he bought it at nearly 2 Dollars to the .
Frank Bullitt

Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


We've taken back control, so far it's working a treat.
Martin

Nice Guy Eddie wrote:
As I understand it you're liable for the increased cost. Will be interesting to see what happens with my M2 option next year.

I doubt I'll take it if it arrives at the dealer post March as I'll have spent more than 6 months with a Porsche daily driver by then


FYP.

Seriously....will the rule change make that much difference?
Bob Sacamano

Frank Bullitt wrote:
Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


We've taken back control, so far it's working a treat.


On that logic the fact that we're still in the EU means it isn't. Who knows what will happen when Brexit finally happens - for me it was always a bit of a toss up whether it was worse to stay in a failing superstate or make the break sooner rather than later.
Frank Bullitt

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Frank Bullitt wrote:
Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


We've taken back control, so far it's working a treat.


On that logic the fact that we're still in the EU means it isn't.


Of course, and had Gerald Ratner announced he was going to make a speech that would create a notable degree of uncertainty about his products I am sure they would have still been selling like hot cakes right until the moment he specifically declared them to be 'crap'.
gonnabuildabuggy

Michael wrote:
Those that put their prices up now are opportunists. Any large business trading internationally will have hedge funds to protect from currency fluctuations. I don't remember them rushing to reduce their prices when the pound rose. Longer term rises are inevitable but the pound is overvalued.


Most hedges are starting to run out.

Increases of circa 10% coming from most of my suppliers imminently.
Racing Teatray

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


The saving grace of being a fucked Sovereign State is that the power to un-fuck it is in your own hands.

Now if you're Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France...


Aarrgghhh not the damn sovereignty straw man again...

And PIGS etc are eurozone which we never were...
Nice Guy Eddie

Martin wrote:
Nice Guy Eddie wrote:
As I understand it you're liable for the increased cost. Will be interesting to see what happens with my M2 option next year.

I doubt I'll take it if it arrives at the dealer post March as I'll have spent more than 6 months with a Porsche daily driver by then


FYP.

Seriously....will the rule change make that much difference?


Well that is part of the problem. Having driven a three series at the weekend its ride was so awful. In Comfort it was floaty, in sport it crashed on every bump but was still floaty (not even sure how that's possible). People might not like Porsches, that I get but if you've ever driven one there is nothing out there this side of Ferrari that blends quality, ride and handling so well.

No, the RFL rule changes aren't huge but its enough to put me off. I pay enough in Tax already and I begrudge giving them 1 more than absolutely necessary.
Big Blue

Nice Guy Eddie wrote:
People might not like Porsches, that I get but if you've ever driven one there is nothing out there this side of Ferrari that blends quality, ride and handling so well.


You need to spend time in an Alpina
Bob Sacamano

Racing Teatray wrote:
Bob Sacamano wrote:
Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


The saving grace of being a fucked Sovereign State is that the power to un-fuck it is in your own hands.

Now if you're Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France...


Aarrgghhh not the damn sovereignty straw man again...

And PIGS etc are eurozone which we never were...


Ah the old chestnut of the UK not being part of the Eurozone therefore we're immune to what happens in it.  

How long do you reckon we would be allowed to be "bad Europeans" and stay out of it? After Greece it's acknowledged that without closer political and fiscal union the Euro is doomed and do you think the current ruling politicians will allow it to fail?
Big Blue

The current state governments will not be so for long. Both France and Germany have elections in 2017 and most of the central belt countries are becoming increasingly nationalistic at local political level. To save the union there will need to be a seismic shift either towards a single state with one government or back to a trade only union.
Racing Teatray

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Racing Teatray wrote:
Bob Sacamano wrote:
Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


The saving grace of being a fucked Sovereign State is that the power to un-fuck it is in your own hands.

Now if you're Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France...


Aarrgghhh not the damn sovereignty straw man again...

And PIGS etc are eurozone which we never were...


Ah the old chestnut of the UK not being part of the Eurozone therefore we're immune to what happens in it.

How long do you reckon we would be allowed to be "bad Europeans" and stay out of it? After Greece it's acknowledged that without closer political and fiscal union the Euro is doomed and do you think the current ruling politicians will allow it to fail?


The intriguing bit about the EU is that we could never have been forced to part of the euro. My argument was always that we should let the euro/EU fail on its own terms and that that would harm us less than the current bonfire of the Brexit vanities.
Martin

Nice Guy Eddie wrote:
Well that is part of the problem. Having driven a three series at the weekend its ride was so awful. In Comfort it was floaty, in sport it crashed on every bump but was still floaty (not even sure how that's possible). People might not like Porsches, that I get but if you've ever driven one there is nothing out there this side of Ferrari that blends quality, ride and handling so well.

No, the RFL rule changes aren't huge but its enough to put me off. I pay enough in Tax already and I begrudge giving them 1 more than absolutely necessary.


I thought the same about the 320d with adaptive dampers, mine is much better on standard M Sport suspension, comfortable but not floaty or too soft.  From what I've read, Adaptive Drive is a lot better and that's what BB has on the B5.  

On 19s without PASM the Boxster is firm but never crashy and above town speeds, the ride smooths out considerably and the body control is brilliant.  I'm driving it several days a week and enjoying every minute.
Bob Sacamano

Racing Teatray wrote:
Bob Sacamano wrote:
Racing Teatray wrote:
Bob Sacamano wrote:
Michael wrote:
Personally I think our economy is royally fucked. Royally because at least we'll be a sovereign state...


The saving grace of being a fucked Sovereign State is that the power to un-fuck it is in your own hands.

Now if you're Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France...


Aarrgghhh not the damn sovereignty straw man again...

And PIGS etc are eurozone which we never were...


Ah the old chestnut of the UK not being part of the Eurozone therefore we're immune to what happens in it.

How long do you reckon we would be allowed to be "bad Europeans" and stay out of it? After Greece it's acknowledged that without closer political and fiscal union the Euro is doomed and do you think the current ruling politicians will allow it to fail?


The intriguing bit about the EU is that we could never have been forced to part of the euro. My argument was always that we should let the euro/EU fail on its own terms and that that would harm us less than the current bonfire of the Brexit vanities.


I agree completely, which was my thinking by voting to Remain. I also understand, however, that I was simply kicking the can down the road and the difficult times we currently face would have to be confronted at some time or another. With the vote not going the way I wanted my thinking now is we might as well get on with it. I'm kind of at an age where I've seen all this before and it tends to sort itself out one way or another. Probably a piss poor lassez faire attitude I know but there we have it.

I was also always embarrassed by our attitude to Europe - my view is that if you join a club you should be committed to it and making it work. Our "one foot in, one foot out, be generally difficult in all European matters" never sat well with me and did us no favours. Sometimes you just have to agree to part, shake hands, and try and be good friends and neighbours.
Big Blue

When I put the B5 in sport or sport+ it's horrible unless you're on a marble-smooth surface. I can't tell between standard and comfort. You can mix the engine/gearbox sport settings with normal suspension and stuff like that but normal is fine for the driving I do.
Bob Sacamano

Big Blue wrote:
When I put the B5 in sport or sport+ it's horrible unless you're on a marble-smooth surface. I can't tell between standard and comfort. You can mix the engine/gearbox sport settings with normal suspension and stuff like that but normal is fine for the driving I do.


Been shite since the Brexit vote though?  
gooner

Big Blue wrote:
When I put the B5 in sport or sport+ it's horrible unless you're on a marble-smooth surface. I can't tell between standard and comfort. You can mix the engine/gearbox sport settings with normal suspension and stuff like that but normal is fine for the driving I do.


To be fair, the roads where it was built probably ARE marble-smooth!
Racing Teatray

Bob Sacamano wrote:

I was also always embarrassed by our attitude to Europe - my view is that if you join a club you should be committed to it and making it work. Our "one foot in, one foot out, be generally difficult in all European matters" never sat well with me and did us no favours. Sometimes you just have to agree to part, shake hands, and try and be good friends and neighbours.


That's a whole different matter. The beef I had with that is that it is only a possibility if you know your neighbours feel the same way. Whereas we always knew they would cut up rough about it.
PG

Racing Teatray wrote:
The intriguing bit about the EU is that we could never have been forced to part of the euro. My argument was always that we should let the euro/EU fail on its own terms and that that would harm us less than the current bonfire of the Brexit vanities.


But the issue is that the Euro is a political project and not an economic one. The euro should have failed - or at least a proper solution found - when the Greece issue kicked off. But as the Euro is a political project (if it was an economic one then fiscal unity would have been a pre-requisite) it won't be allowed to fail. 25% plus youth unemployment, low growth etc are seen as prices worth paying to protect "the project".

Had a sensible negotiation been undertaken with Cameron and a pragmatic approach been taken to the "I want to be in a trade zone v I want to be one country" groupings, the vote would have gone a different way.

So I'm with bob - we may as well get on with it. The EU isn't going to change anytime soon.
gooner

Shouldn't we be making the most of the low value of Stirling. Exporters can do so more competitively and companies that do business domestically can do so more competitively than foreign companies. I'm sure there's more detail missing but it's not that complicated an idea.

I also agree with Bob. The EU won't change for anyone, let alone the UK, so let's focus on doing what's best for Britain rather than worry about trying to pander to EU bureaucrats. Europe mig be our biggest export market but it's not a growing one. We can trade with bigger and better markets.
Michael

Yes, it's time they started up the production lines at Longbridge, Luton and wherever else back open. Problem is most of them are housing estates now and we don't have enough of those either.
Bob Sacamano

Michael wrote:
Yes, it's time they started up the production lines at Longbridge, Luton and wherever else back open. Problem is most of them are housing estates now and we don't have enough of those either.


I'm not sure stereotypes 30 years out of date are helpful.
Big Blue

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Michael wrote:
Yes, it's time they started up the production lines at Longbridge, Luton and wherever else back open. Problem is most of them are housing estates now and we don't have enough of those either.


I'm not sure stereotypes 30 years out of date are helpful.


Why not? Brexiteers are using the days of empire as an example of Britain going it alone successfully.

The commons debate on this will drag us along for a while yet.
Frank Bullitt

gooner wrote:
Shouldn't we be making the most of the low value of Stirling. Exporters can do so more competitively and companies that do business domestically can do so more competitively than foreign companies. I'm sure there's more detail missing but it's not that complicated an idea.


Except those companies are largely foreign-owned so exporting the profits in a devalued pound doesnt benefit. Those that are UK owned with a largely UK supply base would be more successful although any of them that use electricity or gas (quite a few I would guess) are in for a sharp shock in the coming months as the energy market operates in Dollars, and we are already seeing the high-risk short-buy element of our packages taking a sharp rise - thankfully this is only small but my energy bill next year will be larger than than this years, no doubt.

gooner wrote:
I also agree with Bob. The EU won't change for anyone, let alone the UK, so let's focus on doing what's best for Britain rather than worry about trying to pander to EU bureaucrats. Europe mig be our biggest export market but it's not a growing one. We can trade with bigger and better markets.


Well, we can't change it from outside - that's a given. I do believe one day our economy will be stronger for this, I just hope it doesn't take the whole generation I expect it to.

I'm looking forward to all this superb trade on excellent deals with China, the USA and others, it's going to be marvellous.

One day somebody will have to explain to me how, exactly, the U.K. 'Pandered' to the EU (it's bullshit rhetoric). Bob is right, we were never good Europeans only half-hearted at best; selfishly, this meant we've had the best possible deal for 40 years. Now we won't.
JohnC

Frank Bullitt wrote:
One day somebody will have to explain to me how, exactly, the U.K. 'Pandered' to the EU (it's bullshit rhetoric). Bob is right, we were never good Europeans only half-hearted at best; selfishly, this meant we've had the best possible deal for 40 years. Now we won't.



This in bucket loads.
Racing Teatray

Back nearer the OP, I am being quite seriously tempted by the deal my local BMW centre is offering on a new 440i GC. c.10k discount, 2.9% APR, available build slots...

Price to change on the monthlies over the M135i could be as little as 50.
JohnC

Racing Teatray wrote:
Back nearer the OP, I am being quite seriously tempted by the deal my local BMW centre is offering on a new 440i GC. c.10k discount, 2.9% APR, available build slots...

Price to change on the monthlies over the M135i could be as little as 50.


That Sir, requires only thought about which colour you would like: Carbon Black or Tanzanite Blue!
Nice Guy Eddie

Are you in danger of doing another 330d and being bored with it after 6 months?
gonnabuildabuggy

JohnC wrote:
Racing Teatray wrote:
Back nearer the OP, I am being quite seriously tempted by the deal my local BMW centre is offering on a new 440i GC. c.10k discount, 2.9% APR, available build slots...

Price to change on the monthlies over the M135i could be as little as 50.


That Sir, requires only thought about which colour you would like: Carbon Black or Tanzanite Blue!


my thought too
Martin

gonnabuildabuggy wrote:
JohnC wrote:
Racing Teatray wrote:
Back nearer the OP, I am being quite seriously tempted by the deal my local BMW centre is offering on a new 440i GC. c.10k discount, 2.9% APR, available build slots...

Price to change on the monthlies over the M135i could be as little as 50.


That Sir, requires only thought about which colour you would like: Carbon Black or Tanzanite Blue!


my thought too


+1 but the right answer is Tanzanite Blue with Merino leather & leather dashboard.
Big Blue

Yeah that 3-er GC is not very special.
Racing Teatray

gonnabuildabuggy wrote:
JohnC wrote:
Racing Teatray wrote:
Back nearer the OP, I am being quite seriously tempted by the deal my local BMW centre is offering on a new 440i GC. c.10k discount, 2.9% APR, available build slots...

Price to change on the monthlies over the M135i could be as little as 50.


That Sir, requires only thought about which colour you would like: Carbon Black or Tanzanite Blue!


my thought too


Carbon black. With saddle brown leather. Unless the wife thinks otherwise (and she'll probably veto the whole thing anyway!)...
Racing Teatray

Nice Guy Eddie wrote:
Are you in danger of doing another 330d and being bored with it after 6 months?


That's why, among many other reasons, it would be a 440i and not a 435d xDrive.

I tried the 435i last year and really liked it. The 440i gets better reviews - apparently it's a cracking engine that sounds as good as an M4 doesn't. There won't be much or anything in it performance or drive-wise versus the M135i, barring that the 440i would have the 8spd automatic, which will just make sense. It also manages to be relatively handsome rather than relatively fugly, and that useful bit bigger.

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-revi...-bmw-4-series-440i-m-sport-review
PG

Racing Teatray wrote:
Back nearer the OP, I am being quite seriously tempted by the deal my local BMW centre is offering on a new 440i GC. c.10k discount, 2.9% APR, available build slots...

Price to change on the monthlies over the M135i could be as little as 50.


I am sure that making 50 go away through man maths will be the work of seconds. And just use your best Jedi mind tricks on your wife.  
Chris M Wanted a V-10

PG wrote:
I am sure that making 50 go away through man maths will be the work of seconds. And just use your best Jedi mind tricks on your wife.

+1, and surely much better to have a new car, so that nothing is worn (eg tyres, suspension bushes) or likely to suddenly fail unexpectedly
cbeaks1

1800 over 3 years incl 1 years rfl, 3 years warranty, new tyres etc. Sounds pretty good to me.

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