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Michael

Indy ref 2

I see the SNP are now laying the ground for Indy Ref 2. It has been reported that part of their strategy has been to antagonise the English so we'd would want them to go. Has it worked?
Tim

If Indy Ref 1 is anything to go by the English (media) will antagonise the residents of Scotland (that being different IMO to 'The Scots') into voting to split  
Bob Sacamano

Best strategy is to ignore it, they have no mandate.
JohnC

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Best strategy is to ignore it, they have no mandate.


Absolutely agree with this.

An independent Scotland now we have Brexit would be a disaster for Scotland.

We would need our own NHS and HMRC fully staffed in Scotland and unable to take advantage of the economies of scale. It would probably put another 10,000 people on the public payroll with zero benefit (£20B cost?). Taxes would go up and a lot of those with money would move out. Any deal to join the EU would be on their terms and we would have the Euro which then means that our nearest trading partner, with whom the majority of our trade is done would be a foreign country with a different currency and border controls. There might or might not be a trade agreement between Rest of UK and the EU so f*ck knows whether we could trade effectively with Rest of UK.

If Indy 1 was a step into the unknown, Indy 2 would be freefall parachuting without a ripcord.
Tim

Actually, this is only what you would expect the SNP to do.
Clearly Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU so the Government would be doing something wrong if they didn't make these noises.

It's just political posturing on the back of the Department for Brexit (or whatever its called) saying there will be no scrutiny of their deal methodology before commencing negotiations.

That would be fine except it appears to me that those responsible for the stance are all determinedly anti-EU and will probably stop at nothing to get us away, no matter what harm it does to the UK in the relative short-term.

The fact that all these people are well connected politicians with a wealthy future outside of politics ahead of them after they've, possibly, landed us in some poverty for a generation is a reason to be concerned in my opinion.

Any voices that raise concern are, on that footing, welcome.
Racing Teatray

Bob Sacamano wrote:
Best strategy is to ignore it, they have no mandate.


Indeed. I think she's just applying pressure to May and has no intention of actually holding a second referendum for the time being for all the reasons stated.
JohnC

The whole Brexit discussion and methodology is a complete unknown because it hasn't been done before. We also have a potentially hostile EU who just refuse to give us anything because we are leaving their club so I don't believe that setting any ground rules or pre conditions on a unilateral basis is going to achieve anything. Until the negotiations start we won't have a clue about what we can get and by that time we will already have given notice that we are leaving.

An eminently reasonable European can be seen giving the EU's current thoughts here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

but my feeling is that we have posturing on both sides at the moment to try to get the other side to back down.

When David Cameron came back from his EU negotiations with next to nothing, that was a clear indication of the intransigence of JCJ and many others in the EU and I think we are going to see the same again, regardless of whether we like it or not. No amount of stamping of the feet by the SNP is going to make any difference one way or another.

I also think the argument about the people of Scotland voting to stay in the EU is a completely false one. A lot of people voted for the status quo to remain because they had seen and heard far more than they liked with Indy 1. In any case it was a UK vote and not a Scottish one so the Scottish argument is totally irrelevant unless you are also going to allow London to set up as a Sovereign State and remain in Europe as well. As with any election involving the UK, we must all abide by the decision even though we don't like it.

With regards Brexit, the UK and Scotland as part of the UK, will be much stronger together going forward out of Europe than they would be splitting up and trying to move forward with one in the EU and one outside. As for the Scottish Government, its role would be largely dictated by decisions taken in Brussels which could make it a very uncomfortable place to be.

Look at the uncertainty with Brexit - what would it be like with Independence and a totally unknown arrangement with the EU (if they even allow Scotland to be fast tracked in)?

Personally I see more financial and social danger in Independence than I do in Brexit although I want neither.

The latest call for Indy2 is, in my opinion a last throw of the dice by Queen Nicola to try to grab independence because in a post Brexit UK, she is far less likely to get a majority. However I think that also shows the weakness of the SNP - their main goal is independence above everything else, even the long term good of the people of Scotland. This, in my mind, makes the SNP no different from the Department for Brexit and their anti EU stance - it is a Political objective which must be achieved at any cost.

Unfortunately Brexit is with us and we have to trust that those who end up doing the negotiation, do so in the best interests of the UK. Both sides have said it has to be a hard Brexit but in reality neither side want that because it will be painful all around. Compromise will come but only once the talking starts.
Tim

I think the EU have made it pretty clear so far that they are not going to make it easy for us to benefit from leaving, in fact did JCJ not say that we would be made an example of to deter anyone else from trying (that's a great way to run any organisation, isn't it).

I don't agree with this though :-

JohnC wrote:
The latest call for Indy2 is, in my opinion a last throw of the dice by Queen Nicola to try to grab independence because in a post Brexit UK, she is far less likely to get a majority.


I think that in a post Brexit UK a lot of people could well be worse off and the whole blame for that will be pointed at the Brexiteers so inevitably anyone who wants to make political gains will offer something else and a campaign for Scottish Independence may flourish. Not now but in 5 years or so.
Racing Teatray

For those of you who missed it, this is seriously funny:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcO9C6b1O80
JohnC

Racing Teatray wrote:
For those of you who missed it, this is seriously funny:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcO9C6b1O80


I was watching TV when that happened and nearly choked on my cereal.
Twelfth Monkey

I hadn't given this as much thought as maybe it warrants, but I confess it bugs me.  Having voted to remain, it's ridiculous to then take the view that you can overturn that if you happen not to agree with every decision made.
Frank Bullitt

Twelfth Monkey wrote:
I hadn't given this as much thought as maybe it warrants, but I confess it bugs me. †Having voted to remain, it's ridiculous to then take the view that you can overturn that if you happen not to agree with every decision made.


To be fair, if you vote 'Remain' then you still retain your sovereign right to vote again - if you vote 'Leave', that's what you get
PhilD

Frank Bullitt wrote:
Twelfth Monkey wrote:
I hadn't given this as much thought as maybe it warrants, but I confess it bugs me. †Having voted to remain, it's ridiculous to then take the view that you can overturn that if you happen not to agree with every decision made.


To be fair, if you vote 'Remain' then you still retain your sovereign right to vote again - if you vote 'Leave', that's what you get


You do but in 15 or 20 years time not 2 years later!
Twelfth Monkey

Or as soon as something comes along you don't like.
Chris M Wanted a V-10

Indy ref 2 doesn't sound anything like as exciting as Indy 500
PG

Sturgeon is just bargaining - she wants more money for Scotland and more devolved power. Threatening Indy Ref 2 is just part of that.

We might worry that Brexit might be problematic, but not half as problematic to Scotland as an independent Scotland in the EU and using the Euro would be.

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