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Racing Teatray

Corbyn

Sorry for lots of non-car political posts but this shit is interesting (to me anyway)!

Corbyn? Should he stay or go?

Are the views of the MPs more important or those of ordinary party members?

Will it split the Labour party and lead to the second coming of the SDP (come back Shirley Williams, all is forgiven!)...?
Michael

What he do and what will happen aren't compatible. He won't go as he ought to.
I think he'll stay on, he'll win the leadership election and the party will split unless he is only hanging around to be at the 'box for the Chilcott report.
JohnC

The Labour party are potentially unelectable because of the change in the way they now choose their leader.

There are a hard core of  around 300K party members (might be a few more now from those that joined pre the Corbyn election).
By definition, these people don't tend to occupy the middle ground and are at the left side of party politics.

Any party leader voted on by these people is going to be someone who appeals to them but not to the 20m or so people in the electorate who might be said to occupy the middle ground.

If Labour wants to succeed it needs a leader who is attractive to the nation, not to a 300K group with very specific views.

Labour needs another Tony Blair if they want to succeed. Obviously not the actual Tony Blair but someone who can appeal to "middle England" to be a credible alternative and someone who can serve the nation as a whole and not just a minority.
Big Blue

He'll win a mass party vote because the younger party faithful live in fucking la-la land from what I've seen on social meejah and heard in the press. The only way for the party to alter its make up would be to address the way it selects its leadership and look at modern politics and the status quo of life in the UK not being that bad at all before it produces a manifesto based on "them" and "us" and all this "our NHS" bollocks.

There's under 4 years to the next election unless the Tory party leadership election is so fucked up that a General is required sooner.  If it's not Corbyn we may have a viable opposition but if he stays the Tories could run with Iggle-Piggle and take the country.
Stuntman

I agree with Michael in that Corbyn will not step down now and he'll win the leadership election if his name is on the ballot paper.  The Labour Party will indeed eat itself, as the Parliamentary Party will have no credibility at all.

The whole thing is a mess.  If I were in the Parliamentary Party and thought that Corbyn's continued leadership was a disaster, I would definitely be looking to form a new centre-left party and leave the toxic, tarnished Labour brand behind completely.  

I would also reach out to moderate Tory MPs and perhaps even Lib Dems, encouraging them to join.  Now that the Conservatives will inevitably move to the right, there is currently a big vacuum in the centre ground and that's where elections are won.

The Tory leadership is getting very interesting.  Can the new leader be someone who supported Remain?  Theresa May would probably be the best choice for the country in the short term but perhaps Gove will win it?
Michael

Corbin nas just compared Israel to ISIS.
Big Blue

Michael wrote:
Corbin nas just compared Israel to ISIS.


Is that as its reported an Israeli girl was stabbed to death in her bed? Sensitive cunt isn't he?
gonnabuildabuggy

Corbyn is confusing the Labour Party with the Socialist Workers party I sometime think.
Michael

Big Blue wrote:
Michael wrote:
Corbin nas just compared Israel to ISIS.


Is that as its reported an Israeli girl was stabbed to death in her bed? Sensitive cunt isn't he?


Gets better, a Labour member has accused a Jewish MP of being part of a right-wing media plot at the launch of their antisemitism enquiry.
Bob Sacamano

How about a new centre left party of moderate Labour members? They could call it the Social Democratic Party or SDP for short?
PG

Bob Sacamano wrote:
How about a new centre left party of moderate Labour members? They could call it the Social Democratic Party or SDP for short?


That's a catchy name. I wonder why nobody ever did that before?  

The Labour MP's who have tried to get rid of him will need to find a new party in 2020 anyway if he stays. As Momentum will make sure that every one of them is deselected.

If people think Brexit will be bad, imagine a Corbyn led Momentum controlled Labour party in power? If that happens, we may as well use Trident to nuke ourselves (before Corbyn switches it off) and get it over with.
Chris M Wanted a V-10

JohnC wrote:

If Labour wants to succeed it needs a leader who is attractive to the nation, not to a 300K group with very specific views.

Agreed..... and what bemuses me at the moment is that the Conservatives and Libs / Lib-dems both don't seem to have anyone attractive to the Nation or an apparent born leader
Big Blue

Chris M Wanted a V-10 wrote:
JohnC wrote:

If Labour wants to succeed it needs a leader who is attractive to the nation, not to a 300K group with very specific views.

Agreed..... and what bemuses me at the moment is that the Conservatives and Libs / Lib-dems both don't seem to have anyone attractive to the Nation or an apparent born leader


They did have last Thursday evening.
Alf McQueef

JohnC wrote:
The Labour party are potentially unelectable because of the change in the way they now choose their leader.

There are a hard core of  around 300K party members (might be a few more now from those that joined pre the Corbyn election).
By definition, these people don't tend to occupy the middle ground and are at the left side of party politics.

Any party leader voted on by these people is going to be someone who appeals to them but not to the 20m or so people in the electorate who might be said to occupy the middle ground.

If Labour wants to succeed it needs a leader who is attractive to the nation, not to a 300K group with very specific views.

Labour needs another Tony Blair if they want to succeed. Obviously not the actual Tony Blair but someone who can appeal to "middle England" to be a credible alternative and someone who can serve the nation as a whole and not just a minority.


Exactly right. This lot of economically illiterate but well-meaning dreamers need to form their own party with the word "socialist" in the title, and leave Labour to the "New Labour" lot that understand economics and public opinion.
woof woof

Corbyn and his crowd remind me of some of the politically active types I met at college and in the union I belonged to. It is IMO juvenile politics without consequences or responsibility and how people can vote for it I just don't know. I suppose the only thing new is the racism as I don't remember that being a part of the message back then.

I think that the best case scenario is for the majority of MP's to leave and form a new party and maybe this time it'll work and the number breaking away this time might not fit in a Mini but what's to stop the idiots infiltrating any new party and doing the same again?
Grampa

Alf McQueef wrote:
This lot of economically illiterate but well-meaning dreamers


Beautifully accurate description.

I think the poll at the top of this thread would be very different if the question was 'Will he?' instead of 'Should he'
DetmoldDick

Corbyn is simply waiting for the Chilcott Inquiry to be released so that he can have a proper go at Bliar.
Michael

So Labour will split then.
gonnabuildabuggy

PG wrote:
Bob Sacamano wrote:
How about a new centre left party of moderate Labour members? They could call it the Social Democratic Party or SDP for short?


That's a catchy name. I wonder why nobody ever did that before?  

The Labour MP's who have tried to get rid of him will need to find a new party in 2020 anyway if he stays. As Momentum will make sure that every one of them is deselected.

If people think Brexit will be bad, imagine a Corbyn led Momentum controlled Labour party in power? If that happens, we may as well use Trident to nuke ourselves (before Corbyn switches it off) and get it over with.


Corbyn is unelectable and proving that more by the day (would he bother campaiging? Who would be left to stand with him?

A split is the only solution.
Stuntman

Current odds in the Labour Leadership Election:
Corbyn 4/5, Smith 11/8, Eagle 7/1.
Corbyn is even money to be replaced as leader in 2016, and 5/1 ever to be PM.

There are also some interesting prices on who's going to get which Cabinet job under May.  I suspect that there is easy money to be made there, if you're well informed.
Michael

gonnabuildabuggy wrote:

Corbyn is unelectable and proving that more by the day (would he bother campaiging? Who would be left to stand with him?

A split is the only solution.


He doesn't even have enough support to fill the front bench so there isn't sufficient oversight of the government.
The split thing is harder to see as I think many Labour MPs do believe in Labour just not the bastardisation of the party they're seeing so they're reluctant to do it. I'd be interested to know if they could suspend their affiliation and become independents so that the SNP become the next largest party. That way Corbyn would be denied some of the attention he seems to crave.
Frank Bullitt

Michael wrote:
So Labour will split then.


Looks likely, might be a return of the SDP or see more 'New Labour' MP's move over to the Liberal Democrats.

I've been looking-on with a level of disbelief over the attempts to stop Corbin from having his name on the ballet paper - I can see that the logic when the rules were written that either the leader didn't want he job anymore or would have a degree of support from MP's, there is clearly all-out fear that Corbin will again be elected by the members (which whatever you thing, are also the same people who support MP's in their local constituency).

Amusingly (curiously) it does seem that at a time when (whatever your politics) this would have been the perfect moment for the Labour Party to make the Tories look like the party they always have been, capable but utterly divided by Europe, instead they seem to have picked up the Tory party's loaded gun, aimed at their foot, fired, re-loaded then fired at the other one.
gonnabuildabuggy

Frank Bullitt wrote:

Amusingly (curiously) it does seem that at a time when (whatever your politics) this would have been the perfect moment for the Labour Party to make the Tories look like the party they always have been, capable but utterly divided by Europe, instead they seem to have picked up the Tory party's loaded gun, aimed at their foot, fired, re-loaded then fired at the other one.


   
Tim

I think that the Parliamentary Labour party made a slight cockup with this in that they expected Boris to be a new more right wing PM to replace Cameron and they saw a huge gap opening in the middle ground - an area that New Labour so expertly filled in the late 90s.

If that had happened they would need Corbyn to be gone as he, and his accolytes, remind me more of the Michael Foot era of the '80s and would be consequently unelectable.

By choosing May I think the Tories have actually probably stayed more in the middle ground than anyone would've predicted 2 weeks ago.
Racing Teatray

I don't really see May as left of Boris.

Corbyn is a huge problem for a Labour. Momentum is a problem for Labour. Clearly the Socialist Worker views espoused by Corbyn and Momentum are shared by quite a few – perhaps as many as a whopping 0.5% of the population. But nowhere near the entire Labour-voting electorate. And therefore it is arrogant, bullying and ultimately completely self-defeatist of the Momentum movement to seek to impose its anachronistic and backward views on the Labour party.

The country desperately needs a strong opposition and Labour under Corbyn cannot provide it.

If Corbyn manages to cling to the leadership, then I think the disaffected members of PLP should defect to the Liberal Democrats, who are currently after all a pretty left-wing party with a voter-friendly name, a solid claim to the centre-left political space and impeccable modernising credentials (including on the EU). If they did that, it's not impossible to imagine British politics reverting back to the Tory/Whig two party system of old, with Labour as the bit part third party that the LibDems are today.
Stuntman

The Labour Party and the Labour-voting electorate are two entirely different things.  The Party should be allowed to choose whichever leader it wishes.  If it chooses Corbyn then the Labour-voting electorate has a choice as to whether it continues to vote Labour.

Unsurprisingly, I agree that disaffected members of the PLP should defect if Corbyn sees off the challenger(s).  But I think that the Lib Dem name is too tarnished.  I really can still see a new political party being formed, and being successful - i.e. either in power or being the official Opposition.

A stronger but far more chaotic move from a certainty/stability point of view would be for the 150+ MPs who supported the vote of no confidence in Corbyn to resign en masse if Corbyn wins, thereby triggering a host of by-elections.  The clamour for a general election at that point would be substantial.  In which case, a new, centre-ground political party with sensible and tactically smart policies could do very well.
Tim

Over the weekend I saw someone from the Corbynista side of Labour getting interviewed and they boldly stated that Labour didn't need to be in contention to be in power, merely that it had to be there as a reasonably effective opposition to hold the Tories to account of they tried to go too far.

I'm not sure how they can think that might be achieveable when so many of the Labour MPs voted against Corbyn and sadly I don't think that question was posed.
Presumably they would refer back to the probability that normal party members are overwhelmingly in favour of Corbyn
Grampa

Stuntman wrote:
The Labour Party and the Labour-voting electorate are two entirely different things.  The Party should be allowed to choose whichever leader it wishes.  If it chooses Corbyn then the Labour-voting electorate has a choice as to whether it continues to vote Labour.

Unsurprisingly, I agree that disaffected members of the PLP should defect if Corbyn sees off the challenger(s).  But I think that the Lib Dem name is too tarnished.  I really can still see a new political party being formed, and being successful - i.e. either in power or being the official Opposition.

A stronger but far more chaotic move from a certainty/stability point of view would be for the 150+ MPs who supported the vote of no confidence in Corbyn to resign en masse if Corbyn wins, thereby triggering a host of by-elections.  The clamour for a general election at that point would be substantial.  In which case, a new, centre-ground political party with sensible and tactically smart policies could do very well.



Exactly.

I think there's a fundamental problem though that both factions would want to keep the name 'Labour' as it automatically gets the vote of all those who've 'voted for Labour for forty years, just as my dad did, and I will never vote anything else' - both Labour and Conservative rely an awful lot on that type of voter.
Roadrunner

Grampa wrote:
Stuntman wrote:
The Labour Party and the Labour-voting electorate are two entirely different things.  The Party should be allowed to choose whichever leader it wishes.  If it chooses Corbyn then the Labour-voting electorate has a choice as to whether it continues to vote Labour.

Unsurprisingly, I agree that disaffected members of the PLP should defect if Corbyn sees off the challenger(s).  But I think that the Lib Dem name is too tarnished.  I really can still see a new political party being formed, and being successful - i.e. either in power or being the official Opposition.

A stronger but far more chaotic move from a certainty/stability point of view would be for the 150+ MPs who supported the vote of no confidence in Corbyn to resign en masse if Corbyn wins, thereby triggering a host of by-elections.  The clamour for a general election at that point would be substantial.  In which case, a new, centre-ground political party with sensible and tactically smart policies could do very well.



Exactly.

I think there's a fundamental problem though that both factions would want to keep the name 'Labour' as it automatically gets the vote of all those who've 'voted for Labour for forty years, just as my dad did, and I will never vote anything else' - both Labour and Conservative rely an awful lot on that type of voter.


Labour used to rely upon those voters in Scotland and lock what happened there. Could there be a better time for a fresh start?
Michael

Peak Corbynista
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/e...trong_uk_57962a73e4b0796a0b602aaf
Scouse

Racing Teatray

I don't much care for the Speccie, but this is a timely reminder that whilst people appear to like Corbyn because he stands up for principles, they appear to overlook the fact that many of those principles are pretty unpleasant:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/shouldnt-vote-jeremy-corbyn/
Bob Sacamano

Racing Teatray wrote:
I don't much care for the Speccie, but this is a timely reminder that whilst people appear to like Corbyn because he stands up for principles, they appear to overlook the fact that many of those principles are pretty unpleasant:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/shouldnt-vote-jeremy-corbyn/


While Corbyn is in charge of Labour there is no credible opposition to the Tories. Which is pretty worrying really.
Michael

I read this yesterday, couldn't agree more.
Tim

Fair enough although I dislike it when people who oppose someone drag out reasons along the lines of "In 1984......." because I know my own views have changed a lot over the years so why shouldn't a politicians?

The UK certainly needs a strong opposition but I'm sure the Labour 'rebels' were wrong-footed by Theresa May's rapid appointment as Tory leader, they probably thought 3 months of the Tories pulling themselves to pieces over right and 'left' wing views would distract attention away from themselves and let them get rid of Corbyn in relative peace.

I'd never heard of this lady but what a great name - "The Labour MP Thangam Debbonaire"

Just a pity the Spectator can't spell her surname right!
Michael

Tim wrote:
I know my own views have changed a lot over the years so why shouldn't a politicians?


Except Jeremy Corbyn's clearly haven't.
Frank Bullitt

Michael wrote:
Tim wrote:
I know my own views have changed a lot over the years so why shouldn't a politicians?


Except Jeremy Corbyn's clearly haven't.


Agreed and I'm really struggling to think of any right minded person who would have ever thought the IRA were good freedom fighters.
Racing Teatray

Tim wrote:
Fair enough although I dislike it when people who oppose someone drag out reasons along the lines of "In 1984......." because I know my own views have changed a lot over the years so why shouldn't a politicians?


Well yes there's a difference between the views you hold as a jejune teenager or 20-something activist, and those you might hold as a fully developed adult. However, Jeremy Corbyn was 35 in 1984. Which is more than old enough to have developed a more nuanced grasp of most things in life, politics included.
Tim

Racing Teatray wrote:
Tim wrote:
Fair enough although I dislike it when people who oppose someone drag out reasons along the lines of "In 1984......." because I know my own views have changed a lot over the years so why shouldn't a politicians?


Well yes there's a difference between the views you hold as a jejune teenager or 20-something activist, and those you might hold as a fully developed adult. However, Jeremy Corbyn was 35 in 1984. Which is more than old enough to have developed a more nuanced grasp of most things in life, politics included.


I agree, I was meaning that more as a general point.
Big Blue

Corbyn's problem, or the Labour party's problem, is that he appeals to the dreaming fuck-wits that posted on Twitter during the General Election that the UK had voted in the bad guys because the Conservative party were not wont to hand out wads of cash to all and sundry. Whilst that remains  the case he'll be voted in until the next Gen E when the party will insist he fucks off. I work alongside a former Labour Party activist at present and his views on the Labour Party are surprisingly similar to mine, a lifelong Tory. Hilarious.
Frank Bullitt

Without realising it, seems I have a vote for the leader of the Labour Party as I am in a Union (for reasons I won't bore you with).

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